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[Terry Allison]

Work at Home

Heading For a Double-Dip Recession?
Original article at Real Clear Markets
By Investors Business Daily
August 3, 2011

Recession. A day after purchasing managers reported an unexpected slump in manufacturing, another surprise report shows consumer spending falling for the first time in nearly two years. Double dip, anyone?

Despite the largest Keynesian spending splurge in the history of the planet, the economy continues to founder.

The last two years stimulus, meant to get consumers and businesses humming again, was in excess of 10 percent of GDP, an unheard of economic intervention, exceeding even FDRs during the Depression.

Tragically, the result has been the same, failure. Indeed, if anything, trillions of dollars of federal stimulus seems to have damaged hopes for a rebound.

With joblessness at 9.2 percent, the manufacturing sector showing signs of decline and consumers on the ropes, it is time to consider that we might be lapsing into recession again, a little over two years after we emerged from the last one.

Just weeks ago, many economists were convinced the second half of 2011 would be bullishly strong, with higher auto output, a bottoming in home sales and prices, and perhaps even a modest pickup in jobs. Today that scenario does not look so likely.

Just last week the Commerce Department reported that GDP in the first half posted a less than 1 percent growth rate, really a rounding error from zero. Worse, revisions showed the decline during the first recession was far deeper than thought, 5.1 percent rather than the 4.1 percent first reported. So current weakness looks even worse.

Now comes more bad news. On Tuesday the government reported consumer spending slowed 0.2 percent in June, at a time in our two-year-old recovery when it should be growing strongly. Adjusting for inflation, spending was flat, after falling two months in a row.

On net, then, it appears consumer spending was in the red in the second quarter. There is a powerful correlation between economic growth and consumer spending, so this is the strongest sign yet we are heading back into recession.

Those hoping the new debt-ceiling deal will help are kidding themselves. We will still add 7 trillion dollars or more to our national debt over the next 10 years, an amount that will be a drag on the economy for decades to come.

Virtually all economists now agree. Business investment and job creation hold the key to a sound, rapidly growing economy. But businesses have been vocal about what they see as the problem, uncertainty.

They do not know if U.S. government debt will be downgraded from AAA, setting off a spike in rates across the economy. They do not know what their tax rates will be next year. They see hundreds if not thousands of new regulations coming down the pipeline. And they hear politicians on the left, from Obama to Reid and Pelosi, routinely demonizing them.

Who invests and creates jobs in such an environment?

If the economy stumbles and falls, it is the Democrats recession. After three years, their policies have met with nothing but failure, a fact that report after economic report now seems to bear out.

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